Post virus world changes

[slip knot]

Science is too easily politicized. I don't have enough trustable info to draw a conclusion on whether or not this is an engineered virus or not.

But looking at the number I don't see what all of the hype was for. We basically took a booming economy and shut it down over a virus that has a very high survival rate 97-98%. Had we not had the hype we would be commenting about how bad the flu bug was this year.

Whats scary to me is to see how woefully inadequate our emergency systems are staffed/supplied. We are extremely vulnerable. If we were to have a major catastrophic event where we see 20% fatalities were doomed. and don't think our enemies haven't noticed.

I can agree with the moron statement tho, Watching the reactions when the socialist bowed out yesterday was amusing.

[highland512]

This "lock down" business needs to end quickly or we will be in a much worse situation than we are already in. I am afraid many more people will die from suicide, black market crime, or starvation from the suffering resulting from a market collapse.

 If the people and business owners just went on with life and opened up for business and went back to work what would the nanny state do? They cant throw us all in jail.     

[slip knot]

I don't know about throwing you in jail but I'm seeing people getting fined in other parts of the country. I've noticed our police force doing way more traffic stops that usual. don't know if its to enforce the isolation bit or for muni fundraising. since the stores have shut down the sales tax revenue has bottomed out. Gonna see some tough times in the future, tax wise.

[RustFarmer]

A dystopian view:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/which-covid-19-future-will-we-choose

Scenario 3: Worst Case – Decline and Catastrophe

Social distancing measures are implemented and enforced in a fragmented, ineffectual manner across the United States. The federal government fails altogether to deploy a national testing and contact tracing system and to coordinate the delivery of critical medical supplies to the urban hot spots.

Chronic shortages of PPE persist as the pandemic worsens globally, causing demand to surge while supply remains low. This leads to exceptionally high, sustained infection and death rates among health care workers, imposing deep and lasting damage to the health system and crippling the national response for several months.

No effective therapies are discovered, health systems become overwhelmed as the virus continues to spread, and the supply of critical medical equipment (e.g., PPE, ventilators, and ICU beds) fails to keep up with demand. Overwhelmed hospitals fail, worsening health outcomes for both Covid-19 patients and for other hospital patients (e.g., heart attack, cancer, stroke, car accidents) and increasing death rates across the board.

The total number of Covid-19 deaths in the United States ranges between 1.5 and 2.2 million by the end of 2021.

Large segments of the world are unable to control the virus for extended periods, and the United States remains vulnerable to the reintroduction of the virus, forcing the U.S. government to keep its borders firmly shut and barriers to trade and travel high.

A safe and effective vaccine remains elusive, 5-10 years distant. Natural immunity does not last a long time, making those who recover susceptible to reinfection and impeding safe return to work and schools across large portions of the country. The stimulus packages are insufficient to avert deep and lasting damage to the economy. Entire sectors of the U.S. economy are nationalized.

As death rates rise and the economic crisis deepens, widespread, violent disorder intensifies, requiring a significant deployment of the U.S. military.

[Heiny57]

Then there are morons who think they are experts in everything.       

[RustFarmer]

Then there are morons who think they are experts in everything.       

Maybe so.

I think history will look back at this as a lot of missed opportunities due to politics and human nature.

Part of why we are in this mess is the dismissal of experts and science for political reasons.

It cannot be said that this came out of the blue and no one could have expected a pandemic.

Our own Government conducted a simulation of an eerily similar scenario last year.  How much did that cost?  Did we learn anything from it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion

The Crimson Contagion Scenario:
"In less than two months the virus had infected 110 million Americans, killing more than half a million. The report issued at the conclusion of the exercise outlines the government's limited capacity to respond to a pandemic, with federal agencies lacking the funds, coordination, and resources to facilitate an effective response to the virus."

[RustFarmer]

and don't think our enemies haven't noticed.

Exactly.  I think we are safe.  I hope.

I do think some countries may have civil wars because of this.  Iran, North Korea, Middle East, Africa?

Big part of why China under reported.  The ruling party has to keep the population uninformed.

[Lookin4_67GalaxieConv]

You have to act and make decisions based on data that is known.  Doing nothing is also a decision, and many times has poor results.

Climate change is real, and will become a big problem.  Morons on the right deny it.  Morons on the left won't accept the fact that more nuclear fission plants are the only solution.  Renewables will not meet our needs because of cloudy and calm (no wind) days.  Even if renewables could provide the total amount of energy we need, technology for the Grid and Storage currently fail in providing that energy at the time and location needed.  Future potential Grid and Storage technology do not appear meet these needs either.   Coal related pollution in the USA causes 13,000 premature deaths every year.

COVID-19 is not the Flu.  COVID-19 is not just a "big city problem".  It has manifested in big cites first, but it is coming to rural areas.  Best estimates for a vaccine are Spring 2021.  Or later.  Or never.

Climate is always changing.  The key questions:

1) Are extreme climate events materially affected by man's activities? 

2) If so, how can they be mitigated? 

Going back to an economy with emissions consistent with what we had in 1800 is not an option.

[RustFarmer]

Going back to an economy with emissions consistent with what we had in 1800 is not an option.

I don't think we can completely replace all uses of fossil fuels.  Having a goal of being a fossil fuel free country is unrealistic.  However some current uses of fossil fuel could be switched to electric.  Electric water heaters.  Electric cars for people who live in cities.  Heat pumps work well in some parts of the US.  Probably work just fine in GA, maybe not as well in MI.  I don't Think SKfarmer will ever farm with a battery powered tractor.  Some truck freight could be moved to rail which is much more efficient, even with diesel locomotives.  The Trans-Siberian railroad is electric, why doesn't the US have an electric coast to coast freight railroad?

Energy is useful stuff.  You can't have a first world society without it.  Hospitals, factories, and schools all need it.  We should be building a lot more nuclear fission plants.  You can even do carbon sequestration with cheap nuclear energy.  So SK and all the other farmers could still run their tractors, and a factory or tree farm somewhere could pull an equivalent amount of carbon out of the atmosphere.  Scientists could genetically engineer a Frankentree or Franken algae that would grow twice as fast.  A Chemical Engineer friend of mine was working on a cellulosic ethanol project.  They fed genetically engineered bacteria carbon monoxide and waste cellulose and made ethanol.  The guy was brilliant.  One of the smartest persons I have ever met.  He was also addicted to nicotine.  Never got to retire, died of lung cancer at 62.

So yes, if we did all the above we could still use fossil fuels in applications that require them, and get to the net amount of CO2 we were pumping out in 1800.

[fatfillup]

Rustfarmer, its funny that you mention nuclear fission plants as I remember reading about them in high school or college in the 70's and thought it was a brilliant concept.  Is any country using them?  Are they doable? 

I also remember that France had a fair number of small nuclear plants that ran their grid.  If so, they seem to be able to do it safely. 

I am not against having cleaner energy if it is in fact cleaner and reasonably priced.  I dislike legislation that kills industries with a stroke of the pen without regard to cost.

[DeadNutz]

We were going gangbusters building the steam equipment for nuclear power plants in the late 70's. Then that movie China Syndrome came out, then Jane Fonda and Tom Hayden raising a ruckus about nukes and then 3 Mile Island and the industry came to a screeching halt in the 80's. We built equipment for a new Hanford plant and they never finished it. I remember stenciling Fukushima on steam equipment headed there.

At least the last nuke plant I worked on in AZ, Palo Verde, provides a good amount of work for the wife as they do the turbine bearings.

[RustFarmer]

Phil, all the world's nuke plants are fission.  Fusion is the Sci-Fi dream that is off in the future somewhere.

Point is that Fission is doable, safe, and working now.  Pollution from coal has caused more far more premature deaths than Fission plants ever have.

The French (those engineering geniuses that brought us the Peugeot and the Citroen) get 75% of their electricity from nuclear energy.  France is the world's largest net exporter of electricity due to its very low cost of generation, and gains over €3 billion per year from this.

The USA gets only 20% of our electricity from Nuclear.  And we invented it!

[walrus]

Probably not an engineered virus.  It is mutating, but they think we can make a vaccine for it.  The mutations are being used to track its spread.  Most of our cases came from Europe, not China.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-new-york-coronavirus-europe-genomes-20200409-iti55bz5crbatn2xo5a56sdzda-story.html

In hindsight we should have closed our borders to everyone Feb 01.  The few that got through before that could have been managed with aggressive contact tracing. US citizens returning from business or vacation should have been made to wait in a secure quarantine area (Hawaii ?) until they tested safe (not just taking their temp).  Yeah it would have inconvenienced some jet-setters and they would have bitched and moaned.  Too bad for them.

Hard to say how things will change once this is over.  A large part of the US population on both the right and left are anti-science.  We will probably continue to be a nation of morons lead by morons elected by morons.

Maine CDC tracked the start of Corona in Maine to one salesman. Apparently he/she spread it all over before coming here.  Not sure where this person came from or what they were selling but I assume its one of those folks who either didn't know they had Covid or ignored it and kept on working.

[slip knot]

one salesman infected Maine , wow. but not too unusual. the local rehab hospital caught it from a Doctor. Seems you can feel fine and still be an active carrier. Makes it hard to decide when to go to work or stay home. Every 2-3 days our supervisors are changing their minds about when to return to work. first it was 14 days without symptoms, now its 4 days without a fever but you gotta wear a mask for two weeks. No body really knows WTF to do.

[bonneyman]

Something just hit me this morning watching the news of all the oil tankers being docked offshore loaded in the Gulf as most every land facility is full. What happens when hurricane season starts?